India’s July-Sep GDP growth seen at 7-8%

New Delhi, September 6th 2021: The growth rate of India’s GDP for the July-September quarter is likely to remain in the range of 7-8 per cent. In the first quarter of financial year 2021-22, India’s GDP witnessed a growth of 20.1 per cent compared to the same period of the last fiscal.

According to the EcoScope report of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL), there would be some moderation in Economic Activity Index-Gross Value Added (EAI-GVA) growth in July 2021, largely on account of weaker fiscal spending. It, however, noted that private spending — consumption and investments — on the other hand, has grown decently. “Although there is no one-to-one correlation between our EAIs and the official GDP/GVA due to the underlying differences, our composite indices move in sync with the official real GDP (ex-discrepancies) and real GVA estimates,” it said.

“Accordingly, we expect real GVA growth of 7-8 per cent YoY in 2QFY22 v/s 20.1 per cent YoY growth in 1QFY22.” As per Motilal Oswal’s estimates, total consumption grew 5.1 per cent YoY in July 2021 against 2.7 per cent in June 2021 and ‘-12.1’ per cent in July 2020. Within consumption, private consumption grew at a three-month high of 6.9 per cent YoY, though government consumption fell 31 per cent YoY in July 2021.

Excluding government consumption, EAI-GVA grew faster at 7.1 per cent YoY in July 2021, faster than 3.2 per cent YoY in June 2021, but slower from March-May 2021. Further, faster growth in imports compared to exports led to negative contribution from external trade to EAI-GDP in July 2021. Total investments grew at five-month lows of 12.1 per cent YoY in July 2021 against 18.5 per cent in June 2021 and 21 per cent decline in July 2020.

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